Australia’s decision to throw over France in favor of a nuclear submarine deal with the U.S. and Great Britain may have generated the most headlines recently, but the new Anglophone partnership known as AUKUS (Australia-United Kingdom-United States) is about much more than any one particular weapon system, Canberra’s ambassador to the United States said this week.
Ambassador Arthur Sinodinos told the Defense Writers Group that the main intent of AUKUS is to help generate a “global, rules-based order” as the geostrategic focus shifts to the Indo-Pacific region. He said the “big story” of the latter part of the 20th century and the start of the 21st has been the rise of China as a global economic and military superpower.
“If [AUKUS] has the effect of convincing other countries in the region to cooperate and be part of the rules-based order, then it had the right sort of effect,” he told defense reporters Wednesday in Washington. “Our aspiration is for China to be very much a part of that order.”
Ambassador Sinodinos said AUKUS is “country-agnostic”, but he acknowledged that it is no coincidence Australia last year committed itself to increased defense spending — now trending toward 2.5% of GDP — and acquiring new military capabilities as Beijing has dramatically increased its global presence.
“Our strategic circumstances have changed,” he said. “We cannot do this on our own. The Americans are saying the same thing: They can’t do it on their own. If we work together, it is a force multiplier.”
The three partners will share technology on a number of non-submarine issues such as artificial intelligence, cyber security operations and machine learning, Ambassador Sinodinos said.
He would like more opportunities for Australia to get in on the bottom floor with future weapons systems, such as its role in the rollout of the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program.
“That’s the best way to understand the technology and how it can be used,” the Australian diplomat said. “That’s also the best way to maximize the benefit, not just militarily but industrially.”
Australia will work with the U.S. and the U.K. over the next 18 months to determine the best way forward to develop nuclear-powered submarines. The process will include discussions over the design and how the nuclear subs will be constructed. Like those in the U.S. Navy and the Royal Navy, the subs will be powered by highly enriched uranium (HEU), the ambassador said.
But one thing is certain: Canberra is focused on developing a home-grown submarine construction industry rather than buying any leftovers from Washington or London.
“We want to build a mature design, not spend the next few years redesigning submarines,” Ambassador Sinodinos said.
Australia will refurbish its current Collins-class diesel-powered submarines to fill the gap until its nuclear fleet is ready for operations, he said.
Australia will be better able to support military partners if it has its own defense-focused industrial base, he said. The AUKUS deal will allow the nations to augment the total number of submarines in the region rather than merely shift them from one country to another.
Australia is going to rely on the same type of HEU reactors used by the U.S. and British nuclear submarine fleets. Canberra doesn’t want anyone to think they are developing a nuclear-power industry, Ambassador Sinodinos said.
“We’re going for nuclear propulsion. We’re not acquiring nuclear weapons,” he said. “Once the reactors are in there, they stay there. They give you increased endurance with greater range.”
AUKUS is not a defense pact, but it does complement other valuable arrangements between partner nations, such as the “Five Eyes” military intelligence cooperative with New Zealand, the U.S., Canada and the U.K., he said.
“We’re an independent country. We make our sovereign decisions based on national interests,” the diplomat said. “It is overwhelmingly in our national interests to be part of organizations [like AUKUS].”
While AUKUS is a critical development to ensure a “rules-based order” in the Indo-Pacific region, Ambassador Sinodinos said there isn’t a “magic bullet” to solve all ills. He is encouraged that European countries are increasingly interested in playing a larger role in the Pacific.
“They realize that what happens in the Indo-Pacific has a big impact on their interests,” he said. “The world is so interconnected. It is now going to a new level.”
While he didn’t want to say whether other countries could be added to the AUKUS partnership, Ambassador Sinodinos said Australia will continue to work with other countries in the region on a variety of issues, including future military agreements.
“India is really stepping up. There is a lot of potential for cooperation with [them] particularly around economic and technical issues,” he said. “We see a great thirst in India for doing more.”