China is watching closely as the U.S. responds to the escalating tensions in eastern Europe, military experts and lawmakers say.
President Biden has, for weeks, mobilized the full force of his administration and rallied allies in a bid to cool tensions spurred by Russia’s troop buildup of more than 100,000 troops on its border with Ukraine. But with Russia still refusing to rule out military action against Kyiv, some in Washington are raising fears that a weak U.S. and Western response could embolden the Chinese Communist Party and accelerate the long-simmering standoff over Taiwan.
Texas Rep. Michael T. McCaul, the top Republican on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said last week he already fears China has already become emboldened by the events in Ukraine. He expressed growing concerns that China could make a move for Taiwan soon after the Winter Olympics conclude in Beijing next month.
“There is a real danger in that,” said Heritage Foundation Naval Warfare and Advanced Technology Senior Fellow Brent Sadler. “It really depends on how the U.S. government and the Biden administration respond in Ukraine.”
The chaotic U.S. pullout from Afghanistan last summer and Russia’s increasingly menacing stand toward Ukraine and NATO underscore a foreign policy truth — that actions positive and negative affect international perceptions of power and deterrence.
“You don’t need to be a genius to understand this,” said John E. Herbst, a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine who now serves as senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center.
“If you know well the pre-World War II history, you know that the inability of the international community to deal, for example, with the Italian invasion and takeover of Ethiopia, with the Japanese taking over of Manchuria, both in the early and mid-1930s, sent messages to Hitler about things he could get away with,” Mr. Herbst said. “And of course, he got away with a whole lot before war broke out.”
Mr. Herbst said failing to effectively deal with Russian provocations will have a direct impact on U.S. standing globally.
“At this point in time, there are two major powers directly challenging the basic rules of international order, China and Russia,” he said. “I agree with those who say that China is the greater threat in the long term. But if we want to reduce the odds of China making a grab for Taiwan, [we need to] make Putin’s life as he tries to seize Ukraine miserable.”
Russia has demanded that the U.S. and NATO rule out membership to Ukraine and that they roll back military assets across Eastern Europe. It has also asked the U.S. not to build any military bases in countries that were former members of the Soviet Union and not part of NATO. Both remain non-starters for the U.S.
President Biden has continued to emphasize diplomacy in dealing with the crisis and has warned Russian President Vladimir Putin that Moscow will face severe sanctions if he invades.
Democrats in both the House and Senate have introduced legislation that would impose a litany of consequences should Russia invade, including sanctions on Russia’s Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline into Germany and Russian financial institutions. The bill would also extend additional security assistance for Ukraine.
But critics have argued that the threat of sanctions will do little to dissuade Russia from invading, and that Washington has missed its opportunity to pre-emptively deter the Kremlin from escalating the conflict. Republican lawmakers have been outspoken in their calls for the administration to take a tougher stance, including levying new sanctions before Russian troops mobilize.
The U.S. government itself has fed fears that war may be inevitable: The State Department on Sunday ordered family members of embassy staff to leave Ukraine and authorized the departure of some U.S. government employees. The Pentagon on Monday placed 8,500 troops on standby for possible deployments to Eastern Europe in the event of conflict.
“It’s a huge mistake that we’ve gotten to the point we’re at now,” Mr. Sadler said. “This administration has mismanaged signaling what our interests are and what our intent is. There should have been more forces in Ukraine doing training. There should have been more equipment made available to Ukraine earlier, and there should have been more American and NATO forces in Baltic states, Romania and Poland, six months ago to signal intent.”
Beijing has watched largely from the sidelines as the crisis has unfolded, although it angrily denied reports it had asked Mr. Putin to delay any invasion until the Olympics were completed. Foreign Minister Wang Yi called for de-escalation in Eastern Europe on Wednesday in a call with Secretary of State Antony Blinken, according to a Chinese readout of the call..
“We call on all parties to stay calm and refrain from doing things that agitate tensions and hype up the crisis,” China‘s foreign ministry said in a statement first following the call, according to Reuters.
At the same time, however, China has stepped up its own provocations toward Taiwan significantly in recent months. In October, the People’s Republic flew a record sortie of 58 warplanes, including 12 nuclear-capable bombers inside Taiwan‘s air defense zone. Earlier this week China flew 39 aircraft into Taiwan — the largest incursion since October.
The U.S. has continued to exert pressure on Beijing despite the flare-up over Ukraine. The Navy announced Tuesday that two Navy carrier strike groups are conducting operations in the South China Sea aimed at demonstrating an “overwhelming maritime force, when called upon, to support a free and open Into-Pacific region,” according to Rear Adm. Dan Martin commander of the Carrier Strike Group One aboard the USS Carl Vinson.
But applying pressure in China‘s backyard may only be half the battle when it comes to deterring Beijing, Mr. Herbst said.
“If China is your principal focus, you have a real interest in making sure that Putin fails in Ukraine,” he said.