Cracks are deepening across Europe over how to handle the Russia-Ukraine endgame, according to new data released Wednesday, as a growing number of Europeans favor immediate peace over the continuation of a hard-line anti-Russia stance that’s defined Western policy since the start of the war nearly four months ago.
Former NATO Secretary-General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer said Wednesday that Europe has hit a “fork in the road” with respect to the war in Ukraine, acknowledging the rifts that have emerged throughout the continent as the war drags on, casualties mount, and food and fuel prices skyrocket around the world. Other former NATO officials spoke out Wednesday and warned some European leaders — presumably those in Italy and Hungary, who have become the loudest voices calling for an immediate ceasefire — against pushing Ukraine “into a bad peace” and offering any concessions to the aggressor, Russian President Vladimir Putin.
But even as NATO defense officials gathered in Brussels Wednesday to map out the next round of assistance to the Ukrainian military and as President Biden announced a new $1 billion U.S. military aid package, it became increasingly clear that the European public is rapidly growing weary of war and wants its leaders to push for peace.
Ukrainian officials, led by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, have said they are fighting to oust Russia from every inch of Ukrainian territory, including the Crimean peninsula annexed by Mr. Putin eight years ago, a goal spurred by early victories by Kyiv in the fighting. U.S. and NATO officials have repeatedly said they would back any peace deal that is acceptable to the Zelenskyy government.
But that message has been complicated by statements such as one by President Biden insisting Mr. Putin must step down for starting the war and one by Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin that Russia must be left “weakened” and incapable of similar aggression in the future when the fighting is done.
A major study by the European Council on Foreign Relations published Wednesday found that a plurality of Europeans, about 35%, favor “peace now even at the cost of Ukrainian concessions to Russia.” It’s a startling figure that strongly suggests that Europe’s appetite to hold Moscow accountable for its war may be crumbling.
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The survey was conducted in mid-May and sampled 8,000 Europeans.
About 22% of respondents said that “justice” is the most important consideration and they believe that only Russia’s clear defeat can bring about peace. Another 23% declined to choose between those two options, while another 20% were classified as swing voters.
There were extreme differences from one country to another. For example, 52% of the Italian public and 49% of the German public favor immediate peace, the survey said, while just 16% of Polish citizens shared that view. Instead, 41% of Poles believe that defeating Russia is the No. 1 priority and the only path to peace, compared to just 19% of Germans and 16% of Italians, the report said.
In France, 41% called for peace while just 20% fell into the “justice” category. In Britain, the public was split, with 22% calling for immediate peace and 21% saying that Russia must be defeated. The remaining 39% of French citizens and 58% of Britons either declined to choose or were classified as swing voters, according to the report.
“The findings of the poll suggest that European public opinion is shifting, and that the toughest days may lie ahead. The resilience of European democracies will mostly depend on the capacity of governments to sustain public support for policies that will ultimately bring pain to different social groups,” the European Council on Foreign Relations said in a statement accompanying its report. “The survey reveals a growing gap between the stated positions of many European governments and the public mood in their countries. The big looming divide is between those who want to end the war as quickly as possible and those who want to carry on fighting until Russia has been defeated.”
The divide is fueled by the transformation of the conflict into a bloody slog in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region, with Russian forces waging a war of attrition against a Ukrainian military that is outgunned and outmanned. The fiercest fighting has come in and around Sievierodonetsk, a key strategic city that remains contested despite an unrelenting weeks-long assault by Russian troops. The Ukrainian governor of the Luhansk province, Serhiy Haidai, told the Associated Press on Wednesday that the situation inside the city is growing worse.
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“But our military is holding back the enemy from three sides at once,” he said. “The enemy is advancing because of significant advantage in artillery and people, but the Ukrainian army is holding on to its positions in the city.”
Russian troops also reportedly hit weapons depots in western Ukraine in a bid to stop badly needed guns, ammunition and equipment from reaching the front lines in the Donbas. Mr. Zelenskyy said in a Tuesday evening video address that his troops will keep fighting.
“The losses, unfortunately, are painful, but we have to hold out,” he said. “The more losses the enemy suffers there, the less strength it will have to continue the aggression. Therefore, the Donbas is key to determining who will dominate in the coming weeks.”
Arming Ukraine
Mr. Zelenskyy also spoke by phone with Mr. Biden on Wednesday. Shortly after, the U.S. president announced the latest American aid package.
“I informed President Zelenskyy that the United States is providing another $1 billion in security assistance for Ukraine, including additional artillery and coastal defense weapons, as well as ammunition for the artillery and advanced rocket systems that the Ukrainians need to support their defensive operations in the Donbas,” Mr. Biden said in a statement released by the White House after the call.
The latest U.S. shipment includes artillery rocket munitions; 18 additional M-77 howitzers and the tactical vehicles to tow them; and 36,000 rounds of 155 mm howitzer ammunition.
Mr. Austin announced the details during a press conference Wednesday at NATO headquarters in Brussels.
“Ukraine is facing a pivotal moment on the battlefield,” Mr. Austin said. “We’re seeing what [Mr. Zelenskyy] warned us about: after failing to take Kyiv and after reassessing its combat aims, Russia has shifted its focus to the Donbas.”
European leaders also have vowed to ramp up their own weapons shipments to Ukraine, but the growing public calls for immediate peace will surely complicate those efforts. Former NATO officials say that some European governments are making a grave mistake by appearing to weaken their stance toward Russia.
“Politically, NATO allies could also do much more. First of all, we could strengthen deterrence … by keeping all options on the table,” former NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen said Wednesday at a virtual forum hosted by the Atlantic Council, a leading Washington think tank.
“To my mind, many NATO leaders have been too eager to exclude this or that action,” he said. “I think we should keep our adversary in uncertainty. That’s the most efficient deterrent. And NATO allies should not push Ukraine into a bad peace. It’s only for the Ukrainians, it’s for President Zelenskyy and his government to decide the terms of a ceasefire or a peace deal.”
Mr. Rasmussen’s comments seem to have been a direct response to the public positions taken by Italy and Hungary, which late last month pushed the European Union to call for a ceasefire in Ukraine and direct peace talks with Mr. Putin. That position seemed to break from other key EU members that have publicly insisted that helping Ukraine defeat Russia and push Russian forces out of Ukrainian territory must be the overarching goal.
Mr. Scheffer, another former NATO secretary-general, said those opposing viewpoints are now coming to a head.
“I think politically, we might be at a fork in the road,” he said at the Atlantic Council event. “And I see from time to time our leaders in NATO and in the European Union making comments which give me the impression that they’re not always singing from the same hymn sheet.”
He went on to acknowledge the wildly different views of the Russian threat across Europe.
“If you’re living in Poland or living in the Baltic states, the threat is perceived differently than when you live in the Hague or in Madrid or in Rome, for that matter,” he said.
– Mike Glenn contributed to this article, which is based in part on wire-service reports.