The Biden administration is “delusional” if it thinks the Taliban has broken or will break from what’s left of the al Qaeda terrorist network in Afghanistan, warns Pakistan’s former top diplomat in Washington.
Husain Haqqani, who served as Islamabad’s ambassador to the U.S. a decade ago and is now a senior fellow with the Hudson Institute, also says the current “military situation in Afghanistan is comparable to what happened in Iraq in 2011.”
His assessment in a message to The Washington Times dovetails with that of a growing number of regional experts who warn the vacuum left by the U.S. and NATO pullout from Afghanistan could trigger an extremist surge akin to the rise of Islamic State in Iraq and Syria after the 2011 American troop withdrawal from Iraq.
Islamic State, also known as ISIS, emerged from the ashes of al Qaeda in Iraq in 2012-2013 before seizing swaths of Iraqi and Syrian territory in 2014, triggering a spiraling global security crisis amid the rise of ISIS-inspired and directed terrorist attacks around the world, including Western Europe and the United States.
Concerns are running high among hawkish national security analysts that a similar situation could soon unfold in Afghanistan.
“The U.S. troop withdrawal, I think, is a decision we’re likely going to regret,” retired Army Gen. Jack Keane said Friday during an appearance on Fox News.
Mr. Keane, who heads the board of directors at the Institute for the Study of War think tank, compared the current developments in Afghanistan to the Obama-era U.S. withdrawal from Iraq that he said allowed the subsequent rise of the Islamic State terrorist group there.
Mr. Haqqani offered a notably similar take, telling The Times that the current security landscape inside Afghanistan is comparable to the dynamic that was in play in Iraq “after [the] sudden withdrawal of U.S. troops.”
But the former Pakistani ambassador stressed that “all is not lost,” particularly if the Biden administration engages in the right mix of strategic and covert military action going forward through airstrikes and air support for Afghan security forces — action aimed at influencing the Taliban’s behavior in the wake of the U.S. troop pullout.
“[The] U.S. providing air support capability to Afghans, intelligence and covert ops could stop the Taliban’s military advances and force them to negotiate with the Afghan government,” Mr. Haqqani said.
A surge of recent territorial gains by the Taliban hung in the backdrop of a highly publicized visit Friday to the White House by Afghan President Ashraf Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah, who chairs Afghanistan’s High Council for National Reconciliation and is heading stalled attempts to negotiate a long-term power sharing agreement between Kabul and the Taliban.
President Biden sought to convey a message of confidence during the visit, saying U.S. troops “may be leaving but our support for Afghanistan is not ending in terms of support and maintenance of helping maintain their military as well as economic and political support.”
But the parameters of the ongoing military support have yet to be clearly defined. U.S. officials told The Associated Press last week that roughly 650 American troops are expected to remain in Afghanistan to provide security for diplomats after the main American military force completes its withdrawal, which is set to be largely done in the next two weeks.
Mr. Biden previously imposed a Sept. 11 deadline for the troop withdrawal — the 20th anniversary of the 9/11 terrorist attacks that were plotted by al Qaeda operatives who had been given safe haven by the Taliban decades ago.
The withdrawal was set in motion last year after the Trump administration reached an agreement with the Taliban for U.S. troops to leave in exchange for security guarantees. Among other things, the Taliban promised to negotiate a permanent break with groups such as al Qaeda and said Afghanistan would never again become a sanctuary for terrorist organizations.
The militants also vowed to engage in meaningful talks with the Kabul government toward a political settlement. While it remains to be seen how those talks will play out, unease now is swirling around the prospect of an al Qaeda or other extremist resurgence in Afghanistan, where a groups loyal to Islamic State are also active.
Mr. Haqqani told The Times that “the Biden administration needs to recognize that the Taliban are not the partners in peace they were made out to be and that it is delusional to think that they will break from Al-Qaeda.”
Pentagon leaders, including Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, have acknowledged that al Qaeda in Afghanistan could regenerate and plot terrorist attacks against the American homeland within two years, possibly sooner if the insurgent Taliban overwhelm the fragile U.S.-backed government in Kabul and take control of the country.
Mr. Austin and Army Gen. Mark A. Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, outlined the worst-case scenario last week when pressed during a hearing on Capital Hill by Sen. Lindsey Graham, South Carolina Republican, to define whether the likelihood of an al Qaeda resurgence in Afghanistan should be considered small, medium or large.
“I would assess it as medium. I would also say … it would take possibly two years for them to develop that capability” to carry out terrorist attacks outside Afghanistan, Mr. Austin told the Senate Appropriations Committee.
Gen. Milley gave a similar assessment, though he warned that the time frame could be much shorter if the Afghan government collapses without U.S. and NATO support.
“If certain other things happen, if there was a collapse of the government or the dissolution of the Afghan security forces, that risk would obviously increase,” he said. “But right now, I’d say ‘medium’ and about two years or so.”
Despite such concerns, advocates against U.S. military intervention abroad say the troop pullout is long overdue from the war zone where tens of thousands of Afghans, as well as more than 2,400 American military personnel, have perished over the past two decades.
“After 20 years, tens of thousands of casualties and $2 trillion, the U.S. has wasted far too much trying to stabilize Afghanistan,” retired Lt. Col. Daniel L. Davis at the Defense Priorities think tank in Washington said in comments circulated Friday to journalists.
“It’s true Afghan security forces will struggle to hold ground in a post-U.S. Afghanistan. But the alternative of keeping U.S. forces in the country to prop them up will not solve their problems,” Mr. Davis said. “Extending the U.S. deployment would trap thousands of U.S. soldiers in a civil war they cannot win, and risk more unnecessary American casualties.”
? Ben Wolfgang contributed to this report.