China’s military now has the capability to conduct a full-scale invasion of Taiwan and has added new missiles and amphibious ships to the People’s Liberation Army for an attack on the island democracy, according to the latest annual report of a congressional China commission.
Additionally, the standoff between China and Taiwan has become dangerous because the ability of the U.S. military to deter a Chinese attack is “less certain,” the survey by the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission concluded.
China, which insists Taiwan is part of its sovereign territory, also has rapidly increased the number of medium-range missiles targeting the self-governing island state from 30 to 200 over the past several years. New amphibious ships have been added to the Chinese navy and civilian vessels are being prepared to move troops across the 100-mile-waterway in a potential future invasion.
The panel noted that a People’s Liberation Army invasion would be a high-risk operation for Beijing, but it would include cyberattacks, missile strikes and a blockade, with an initial invasion force of some 25,000 troops.
“Given these developments, it has become less certain that U.S. conventional military forces alone will continue to deter China’s leaders from initiating an attack on Taiwan,” the report said.
The growing danger of a war over Taiwan is among the key findings of the 551-page annual report, which also warns that China’s rapid expansion of nuclear forces has increased the danger of a nuclear war.
“We found that the Chinese are at or near an initial invasion capability,” said former Sen. Jim Talent, one of the 11 commissioners, in a briefing for reporters.
The commission’s warnings about Chinese military capabilities, based on hearings and intelligence briefings, contradict statements earlier this year by Gen. Mark A. Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Gen. Milley told Congress in June that China does not yet have the capability to invade Taiwan.
“I think China has a ways to go to develop the actual, no-kidding capability to conduct military operations to seize through military means the entire island of Taiwan if they wanted to do that,” he said.
The four-star general said “there is no reason” for China to conduct a military assault.
By contrast, the commission report said Chinese President Xi Jinping has shown a higher tolerance for risk and wants to retake Taiwan as part of his legacy. The combination could contribute to a decision to attack Taiwan despite U.S. warnings.
On the Chinese nuclear buildup, the report said China is moving to become a near-peer to the United States in its nuclear power.
“China’s nuclear buildup puts it on a trajectory to become a nuclear peer of the United States in qualitative terms,” the report said.
The nuclear buildup will allow China to use its conventional force for greater military coercion in Asia and elsewhere, the report’s authors warned.